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EIA energy outlook: electricity and gas price projections
Updated Oct 12, 2026
EIA outlook fetched Oct 12, 2026 · first projected month October 2026 · checked daily, EIA publishes monthly
The EIA projects the ERCOT North hub wholesale price to average $33.82/MWh over the 12 months from October 2026, vs $34.29/MWh over the 12 months before (-1.4%).
These are projections from the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, not observed prices; the EIA publishes a new outlook every month and revises earlier projections. The 12 months before are the EIA’s history and estimates. Changes are our calculation. A wholesale price is not what a household pays.Source: TexasHomeBills™ — https://texashomebills.com/data/energy-outlook
ERCOT North hub wholesale price
Monthly average, $ per MWh (EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook). Solid line: EIA history and estimates. Dashed line: EIA projections from the first projected month on.
Next 12 months vs the 12 months before
Series
Before
Projected
Change
ERCOT North hub wholesale price ($/MWh)
34.29
33.82
-1.4%
PJM Western hub wholesale price ($/MWh)
83.56
77.35
-7.4%
MISO Illinois hub wholesale price ($/MWh)
52.64
47.45
-9.9%
CAISO SP15 wholesale price ($/MWh)
25.84
30.14
+16.6%
NYISO Hudson Valley wholesale price ($/MWh)
81.57
65.56
-19.6%
ISO-NE Internal hub wholesale price ($/MWh)
80.70
68.27
-15.4%
SPP South hub wholesale price ($/MWh)
36.77
34.71
-5.6%
Residential retail price, West South Central (¢/kWh)
15.22
15.56
+2.2%
Residential retail price, U.S. (¢/kWh)
18.11
18.60
+2.7%
Henry Hub natural gas price ($/mcf)
3.73
3.24
-13.3%
Averages of the 12 months before October 2026 (EIA history and estimates) and of the 12 months from October 2026 (EIA projections). Wholesale prices are at one hub per market, not a market-wide average.
The numbers come from the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, which projects about 18 months ahead and is released monthly. Months from the current month on are projections. We average the 12 months from the first projected month and the 12 months before it, and compute the change. The EIA revises its projections every month, so these pages change; our data API keeps the previous value of each month.
A projection can be wrong. We show it because it is the EIA’s own published view, not because it is a prediction we stand behind.
Frequently asked questions
Will Texas electricity prices go up?
We do not forecast prices. This page shows what the EIA projects for wholesale prices and for the retail price in the region that includes Texas; projections can be wrong and your own price depends on your plan.
Are these observed prices?
No. Months from the first projected month on are EIA projections. The table’s “Before” column uses the EIA’s history and estimates, which can also be revised.
Can I use this data?
Yes, free, with attribution: name TexasHomeBills™ and link to this page, and also credit the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Download CSV or JSON above. Commercial use of the API needs a Pro key.
TexasHomeBills™ — Texas electricity plans ranked by what they really cost you.
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